Is The Property Market At The Right Time?

At the end of March, the central bank, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of housing and the State Administration of Taxation issued a series of policies to stimulate the property market. Did the property market turn into a turning point? A few days ago, reporters visited several sales offices in Tongzhou, Fangshan and other places in Beijing, and conducted a business understanding of many second-hand housing intermediaries in the city. They only wanted to answer the questions that most buyers were most concerned about. Now is it the best time to buy a house?

　　 The whole country is warming up.

On the whole, the whole country Property market The theme of the beginning of this year is resuscitation. According to China real estate index system 100 cities price index survey data for 100 new cities, in March 2015, the average price of 100 cities (new buildings) in the whole country was 10523 yuan / square meter, a slight decrease of 0.15%. Beijing, Shanghai The average price of the ten big cities (newly built) housing is 18938 yuan / square meter, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared with the same period, and it continued to decline compared with the same period last year.

Central Plains real estate chief analyst Zhang Dawei analysis, the overall look, March market Still in the market recovery after the Spring Festival, the overall price of housing is still down, but the rate of reduction is narrowing, and the trend of overall market stabilization is becoming more and more obvious. The new property market introduced in March 30th has given the property market a shot in the arm.

According to the data of new housing transactions in 20 large and medium-sized cities surveyed by Soufangwang data center, before and after the new deal (-4 March 27th, 2), the volume of new premises in 16 large and medium-sized cities rose sharply, accounting for 8 of the total, of which the Beijing rose by 58.6%, and Ningbo rose by 282.54%.

　　 Beijing new batch will enter the market.

Entering April, the Beijing property market will usher in the opening tide. According to the statistics of Yali Ho, Beijing's property market is expected to have 31 entries in April, including 10 pure new plates of Tongtai International Mansion (real estate information), one center and Luneng seven villas, and 21 old projects such as the first opening of Xi Yue Shang Jun (real estate materials), China construction international port (real estate materials), five mines, inscriptions (real estate materials) and so on.

From April, it is estimated that only 10 items of the 31 projects will be announced for sale price. Among them, the price of Tongtai International Mansion is expected to be 27 thousand yuan, the Olympic Stadium, the first station (real estate information), the price of 35 thousand yuan, and so on, and the remaining 21 are all pending. "As a whole, most of the opening projects in Beijing are outside the Fifth Ring Road, and these projects are mainly based on demand." Mr. Chang, a project manager, told reporters. "At the end of last year, we predicted that the loan policy would be relaxed, but the price of the project would not rise. We are bigger in volume, mainly in running volume, and no one knows how long the housing recovery will last.

Beijing property market hotspots near the palace, for example, the current price is almost a year has not changed. At the end of 2012, as the representative project of Tiangong courtyard, Longhu times sky street (real estate information owners forum) played a sales price of 13500 yuan / square meter. With the entry of many developers, the Tiangong district has once become a new demand spot in Beijing, and the housing price has risen from the initial 13500 yuan / square meter to 22000 yuan / square meter in the highest period. However, with the housing market entering into the market, the recession of the rigid demand market has also lowered the price of the sale items in Tiangong court. At present, the selling price of Tiangong district has basically maintained at 19000 yuan / square meter - 20000 yuan / square meter.

Because of policy adjustment, individual developers shouted slogans of "no price increase for a week". But according to the reporter, this is mainly marketing means, for buyers to create the "last purchase window" psychological pressure. However, from the point of view of supply and demand, there is still a large stock pressure in the market. It is not realistic to expect the price of the house to rise in 2009 as a retaliatory rise.

　　 Second house heat increased significantly

After the introduction of the new property market in March 30th, did the Beijing property market rise or not? On the face of it, many new sites did not announce pricing, and for a time, there seemed to be no price rise. But from the feedback of the secondary housing market, the Beijing property market seems to be surging.

Reporters visited the second-hand housing transactions more active Chaoyang District real estate near the city's intermediary understands that after the implementation of the new deal, the amount of purchase consultation increased significantly. 2 to 5 years of increase in housing, and this part of the owners of housing prices have risen, but not much, generally less than 5%.

"It was rumoured that after the new property market was introduced in March 30th, the owners called the intermediary 200 thousand times overnight, which is not widely representative." Mr. Li, a regional manager who works near Yuecheng City, told reporters, but the number of people who call the market has changed.

Zhang Xu, a chain real estate analyst, said that although the number of homebuyers who can benefit directly from this round of policy is limited, the market driven enthusiasm of policy driven demand for improved demand will further increase volume in the future. Therefore, we do not rule out the possibility of rising prices in the two quarter or the second half of the year. "But compared with the past, this round of adjustment is more rational for buyers and sellers, and buyers do not have to panic into the market. Whether the market will accept part of the housing price rise is still to be seen.

　　 March rental market fever

Generally speaking, how to measure the heat of a city's property market is, on the one hand, a transaction, which can directly reflect the market transaction. On the other hand, it is the rental market, which can reflect housing demand, economic vitality and so on. It is also a reference for a city's market activity.

Although the new deal has just been implemented, the final impact on the market needs to be observed. But from the past month's rental market, Beijing's real estate demand is still strong. In March, the volume of renting kept the peak season. The average daily turnover increased by more than two times, rising by more than 30% over the same period. In the case of a substantial release of passenger sources, the rental hot area transactions and rents rose. It is expected that after April, the rent will remain stable with the end of the peak season.

According to statistics of the chain home real estate market research department, the average daily turnover of Beijing rents rose by 209.4% in March 2015, up 32.2% compared to the same period last year, and the demand for post lease market increased sharply. Chain home real estate market research department Zhang Xu believes that from the March volume level, the characteristics of the peak season is obvious, with the return of workers to Beijing and the arrival of a large number of white-collar changing lease, turnover has increased rapidly. Compared with previous years, this year's rental peak has increased compared with previous years, the outbreak of post holiday demand exceeded the previous.

According to statistics from the chain home real estate market research department, the average rent per unit in March was 56 yuan / square meter, as structural factors dropped by 6.8% from last month. This is mainly due to the proportion of transactions in the suburbs (Changping, Daxing, Tongzhou and Shunyi) reaching 26.1%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points from the previous month, a record high, and the shift of leasing demand to some extent has lowered the average rent. From the actual rent trend, hot area rents rose, in March due to the surge in demand, especially near the subway, the rent generally rose at 5%-8%.

　　 Does boxing bring new bubbles?

In order to figure out the original intention of this year's series of property market stimulus policies, the industry believes that it is necessary to return to the "government work report" not long ago. At that time, the phrase "supporting residents' self occupied housing and improving housing demand" replaced the phrase "speculative investment demand" last year, when the industry widely speculated that the real estate policy would be adjusted.

Laifang director and Shanghai research and consulting department director Yang Yuechen said that for the buyers, the current policy environment has become more relaxed. At the end of 2014, there have been two financial adjustments to reduce interest rates. In the future, the policy environment will not be ruled out to continue to maintain a relaxed environment to meet the housing demand of the general family. "The policy adjustment introduced in March 30th is a signal for the market to return to marketization, but we should treat it rationally. On the whole, the adjustment of the property market policy pays more attention to market changes and supply and demand relations, so as to avoid the occurrence of all sizes. Objectively speaking, the relaxation of credit policies is beneficial to restore confidence and volume in the real estate market.

"Since 2014, China's real estate investment has slowed down, inventories have risen, and house prices have dropped," said Ji Yan, director and director of research and consulting at greater China. The central bank has adjusted the policy of individual housing loans to 40% down payment of the two sets of mortgage loans, which is expected to help to release the demand for improved housing and to stimulate real estate transactions to further stimulate the housing demand of residents. However, from the national perspective, the investment demand has dropped significantly, and the supply of many cities is very large, so whether the new deal will stimulate the rise in housing prices remains to be seen.

　　 Should we play now?

For the opportunity to buy a house, in fact, the basic situation of each purchaser is different, and the judgement is different. For people who just need, as long as they meet the housing requirements, they have been buying opportunities for the past few years. Now banks enter the cycle of interest rate cuts, and banks have preferential policies for the first suite, which is a good exit node as a whole.

For improved families, there is already a suite, now buying second suites or changing rooms, is also a good time point. After the new deal comes out, the housing supply that has been full for two years but is less than five years has changed so much that the space for selection can also be increased. A 3 million house can save 160 thousand of the business tax. To some extent, the improved demand is also just needed. Sooner or later, it must be bought early.

For investment demand, the investment value of the property market is not high now. Over the past 10 years, housing prices have skyrocketed, and many early buyers have been making money, mainly due to bank leverage and revaluation of property prices. In the future, if there is a lack of credit leverage, the investment income of the property market is not high, which is why the real estate group quit Beijing a few years ago.