Xinjiang Cotton Target Price Announcement Period Cotton Trend Becomes "Dense Fog".

At present, the aim of Xinjiang's cotton target price is to guide the cotton farmers through the national policy, which is to ensure the corresponding planting area, and the price of cotton will be decided by the market.

It is not necessary for cotton enterprises to interpret the direct subsidy policy excessively, so long as they are considered according to the market supply and demand, otherwise they will think things more complicated.

In 2014, some enterprises themselves wanted to be complicated, which led to the phasing up of purchasing prices. As a result, everyone saw it.

According to the relevant people of COFCO Futures Limited, it is now in the period of concentrated cotton planting in the mainland. However, due to the influence of rainy season during the Qingming period, the sowing time has been postponed to varying degrees in various parts of the country, and the selection of the new year's target price at this time will play a great role in stabilizing the cotton planting area in the next year.

The price of 19100 yuan / ton decreased by 700 yuan / ton compared with the previous year, but this price is still far higher than that in the spot market. This is undoubtedly a news for the cotton growers in Xinjiang area. Therefore, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is not only stable, and it may continue to hit a new high. As of now, the state has not issued any announcement on the mainland subsidy, and some parts of the subsidy for the last year's commitment of 2000 yuan / ton are still not in place, so the state will

The intention of moving westward is very obvious.

The state announced 2015

Cotton target price, taking into account factors such as cotton production cost and income, market supply and demand, approved by the State Council, the national development and Reform Commission issued the target price of cotton in Xinjiang in 2015, which was 19100 yuan per ton.

But all kinds of conjectures about target price and subsequent chain reactions may become the focus of discussion in the market.

But all kinds of conjectures about target prices and all kinds of subsequent possibilities

It has become the focus of discussion among all parties in the market.

We believe that cotton target price has little effect on cotton price and futures trend, although the new target price is down 700 yuan / ton compared with last year. According to our understanding, most cotton growers are satisfied with the price of 19100 yuan / ton.

At present, it is still mainly concerned with the following factors: (1) does the Corps purchase cotton again price cut? (2) when will the about 10000000 tons of national cotton store be thrown and stored? What price will be thrown away? (3) will the India CCI increase the volume of the national cotton reserves as soon as possible and reduce the price? (4) will the competitive fiber raw material of cotton also be recovered again because of the weak global economic situation?

So is the hype about reducing production in the early stage of the market feasible? In 2014, cotton production in Xinjiang reached 4 million 300 thousand tons. If the output of cotton growing area continues to enlarge this year, plus 897 thousand tons of import quotas and about 10000000 tons of daily inventory, the worries of tight supply next year will no longer exist, which will be more serious for far month contracts.

At the same time, because last year was the first year of the implementation of target price management, cotton farmers and cotton processing enterprises did not understand the distrust of national policies, so that the price of cotton did not appear below the cost price this year, which also made China's textile enterprises languish.

So, on the basis of last year's experience, will this year cotton growers be able to sell less than the cost price while subsidized by the state to make up for the interest? This possibility is very great.