India'S 2019-20 Quarter Growth Forecast For The Second Quarter Will Fall To 4.5~4.7%

Although Moody's government has tried every means to revitalize the economy, India's economy is still in recession. The economic growth rate in the second quarter (4~6 months) of this year (2019-20) will fall below the 5% level, to 4.5~4.7%, a 6 year low and 7% in the same period last year. This is due to the decline in long-term car sales, the decline in factory production and the decline in exports.

At the beginning of this year (2019), the Central Bank of India (RBI) launched stimulus policies in succession. Over the past few months, the Modi administration has implemented a number of measures, including the reduction of corporate tax rates, the establishment of real estate funds, the consolidation of banks and privatization of state-owned enterprises, but with limited effectiveness.

Taimur Baig, chief economist of DBS Group Holdings, said that India's domestic demand is insufficient for a long time. The credit crunch has an impact on the overall economic activities. Production and sales are under pressure, and the lack of tax revenue is even more constrictive to the government's spending. Group India was the highest growth country in the world (2018 years ago), with an average growth rate of 9.4% per quarter in 2016. However, the subsequent banking crisis, the depressed consumption in the rural areas and the global economic recession caused India's economy to continue to decline.

Indranil Pan, chief economist of IDFC First Bank Ltd. bank in Mumbai, said that the current economic recession in India is comprehensive, that both consumption and investment are insufficient, and that global demand has not been upgraded. Under such circumstances, India's economy will be very slow even if it recovers.

The Central Bank of India (RBI) has accumulated 135 basic points of the basic interest rate since the beginning of this year, the lowest level since 2009. As the inflation rate will fall below the medium and long term target of 4%, experts estimate that under the RBI (12) month 3~5 meeting, it is possible to reduce the interest rate by sixth points at 25 basic points and come to 4.3%. The bad economic outlook and the interest rate cut will definitely affect the Rupee exchange rate.

According to India Economic Monitoring Center (Centre for Mo) Nitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) statistics show that the unemployment rate in India has climbed to 8.5% in October, the highest monthly rate since August 2016, and India's economic growth rate must reach more than 8%, so that millions of young workers can be digested every year.

India finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed an additional $2 billion 700 million spending plan to Congress on 28 (11) 28. The total budget of India this year was 27 trillion and 860 billion rupees (about $388 billion). Minister Sitharama said India's overall economic fundamentals remain sound. Investors predict that the India government will continue to launch the revitalization of economic measures, a large number of funds into the market, the India stock market reached a record high this week.

Chetan Ahya, chief economist of Morgan Stanley (Morgan Stanley), said that India's economy is entering a deep recession cycle. In recent years, there have been several major shocks, including the 2013 scare (Taper Tantrum), 2016's waste note (Demonetization) and the US China trade war this year, making the economic recovery more difficult.

Natio, a government think tank in Delhi, India Nal Institute of Public Finance and Policy economist N.R. Bhanumurthy said that India's economic recession has bottomed out. As the government adopted a series of credit easing policies, coupled with an increase in festival demand, the economy is expected to recover gradually from October.